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Ordinarily, the NFL's Coach of the Year trophy adheres to a simple pattern. It frequently acts as a type of apology. Our apologies we misjudged your squad in our preseason projections.

In theory, it's a direct line: the skipper who engineered the largest improvement wins the prize. In practice, it sparks an annual discussion about expectations and whether we're truly rewarding excellent coaching or merely the most shocking surprise.

Yet the latest race is fundamentally different. The list of contenders is unusually talented. It has been the year of turnarounds. The NFL has been messy, with recent division winners declining and recent strugglers ascending collectively. In an ordinary year, Sean Payton guiding the Denver Broncos to the top of the AFC would make him the stone-cold favorite. But in this turbulent and thrilling year, he's competing with several other elite coaches.

This is how the ideal ballot should be structured.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors are fascinated by signal-callers. This is a tradition. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. When you fix a quarterback, you're well on your way home.

The Bears' head coach not only corrected Caleb Williams; he's unlocked him. Given a proper system, Williams has been afforded the chance to display his otherworldly talent. From midseason onward, the Chicago offense rank fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a hot streak – it's consistent excellence. Under Johnson, Williams has become more decisive, less reckless, and has eagerly submitted to the scheme rather than freelancing. It is an offense built entirely in the coach's image: a bully-ball run game, a steady dose of play-action passes and a creative aerial game that frees wide-open targets all over the field. The QB has capitalized. And when openings weren't available, he's been able to conjure magic out of nothing.

The coach arrived to the Bears with a defined offensive vision. Almost every bet – overhauling the offensive line, highlighting the tight ends, turning the QB into a rhythm thrower – has paid off. That's uncommon for a first-year skipper. And it's even more uncommon still for a coach who entered the building with the kind of pressure Johnson did. For two straight cycles, he was the hottest name on the coaching carousel. But when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are no sure things. Somehow, he has met expectations – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not just to be a scheme wizard but the kind of leader that can inject new life into an franchise.

During a ordinary season, he would be the runaway favorite. But the current isn't a typical year!

Where his candidacy comes a bit into trouble is on the defensive side. The Bears currently rank in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are surviving on takeaways, and takeaways are famously fickle. Defensive minds can emphasise creating turnovers, but no one can guarantee it. Johnson is on the list because the offense is real. He's not higher because variance is doing an outsized share of the defensive work. With a couple breaks of the ball, the team would be several wins behind. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the core is in place for long-term success. However Johnson falls short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

Coen is in a similar spot to Johnson. He's another first-time head coach who has engineered a swift turnaround. Over the stretch run of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the finest overall football of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the remaking of a defense that now ranks fifth in the league in EPA per play.

Even more impressively, he has mastered the off-field stuff, which was not a guarantee following his initial press conference appearances and some of his offseason moves.

The coach walked into the Jaguars with an exceptionally raw coaching staff. In contrast to Johnson, who surrounded themselves with the ideal coaching mix of youth and experience, Coen bet on first-timers. From the leader himself to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jags are stocked with rookies. That kind of approach is exciting on paper, but frequently fails in reality – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everybody is learning a new job on the fly. Yet Coen has managed to bring everyone and everything into sync.

After an early hot start, there was a possibility that the season would go off the rails. A mid-year collapse caused the Jags stumbling once more. That's typically when leaders panic and change too much. Coen didn't. Instead, he streamlined the approach. The offense stopped pursuing explosive plays and started hunting consistent ones. The coach refocused the offense around key players and the running game, and asked his QB to use his legs more.

The results are evident. The Jags have won multiple games in a row and will be the AFC's No 3 playoff seed. Coen gets the tiniest knock in the rankings because he inherited a skilled roster, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Every Strong of the Year narrative has a pivotal decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback decision.

Moving on from a veteran, bringing in a different quarterback and pairing him with an innovative offensive coordinator might have derailed the campaign in October. Rather, it made it. Through the middle point of the season, the new QB was an MVP contender. He has cooled off after that hot streak, slipping to 23rd in EPA per dropback over the latter part of the schedule, putting him just a single spot ahead of other QBs.

Still