Ten years following the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that polarised the nation and triggered turmoil, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two leading writers from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly fraught and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can build support very quickly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the political architecture of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Aims to Provoke Discussion
The pair have examined the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the issue with a roadshow of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everyone, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose implications have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an highly divided society where those defeated are resistant to losing and the those successful lack clarity exactly what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is looming, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the likelihood, making it uncertain when or if there might be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unification has masked the absence of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has taken place in academia but scarcely any government figures or advocates seek to involve themselves with the essentials. For instance, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, no writer endorses unity or the current situation. They authors two essays that strive for impartiality in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling financial and social data, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Arguments cover national emblems, levies, medical care, pensions, public liabilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The goal is to enlighten and encourage discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Debate implies an acceptance of the idea that there might be valid points on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they prefer unity but refuse greater financial contributions or introducing a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government should establish what the plan from pro-unification movements is aside from just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a referendum in his era is probable and that it might occur abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a ill-advised or a feckless secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate perspectives, he stated. "One side will prevail in this matter and the other side will in the end not succeed but each side has got something to gain from the opposing arguments."
Call for Wider Debate
Westminster needed to engage with the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish issue."
